This is from Saturday's Daily Racing Form (http://www.drf.com/news/article/55517.html) ... going for the gusto.
Looking for value in the Preakness
As a handicapper, it's usually a good idea to go against public opinion, especially when you get inflated prices. That's why whenever I hear people - so-called experts and novices alike - saying the Preakness is shaping up as a two-horse race with Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, I start seeing dollar signs.
We have seen all year that no horses are head and withers above their generation, a la Affirmed and Alydar or Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. Yet I keep hearing people say that Smarty Jones and Lion Heart are the cream of this crop just because they dominated one race, forgetting that races in the slop often lead to lop-sided results for front-runners and offer valid excuses for closers who don't fire.
But let others feel that way, as they will be taking the worst of it odds-wise. I'm going to toss Smarty Jones completely. If he wins, I'll be cheering his performance like everyone else, but I refuse to take an underlay at 8-5 or thereabouts, and he will be used extensively in the exotic wagers, too.
The biggest overlay in the field is Water Cannon, number 11 in your program and on the saddle cloth, at a juicy 30-1 on the morning line.
Most people are saying he has no shot, especially since he usually likes the lead and is stuck with the outside post. He is also knocked because he hasn't faced the quality of competition as his peers.
I acknowledge all those points, but my feeling is that he has been running in slower races to begin with (24- or 25-second opening quarters and half-miles between 47.40 and 51 seconds), so I don't see him challenging Lion Heart or Sir Shackleton for the lead, anyway. He just has to cut over and get in that second flight with the likes of Smarty Jones, Eddington, and Rock Hard Ten.
His last win, over this track at 1 1/8 miles in the Federico Tesio on April 17, was in 1:50.50, which is just about a second slower than the major Derby preps. The fact he is the only entrant with a win - or a race of any kind - over the track certainly works in his favor.
The other thing I like is that he has won five straight races. He's a horse who knows how to win. Remind you of anyone?
At a pre-Derby seminar at the Stardust, I was asked by host John Kelly what I thought of Smarty Jones's chances. My response was something like this: "He's the type of horse I normally love. He's been dominating on a lesser-regarded circuit and now moving up to face the big boys. A lot of people discount those invaders, feeling they're of inferior quality, and you can usually get overlays. I just can't take 7-2 or 4-1 on him in an 18-horse field."
Well, Water Cannon fits the same mold, and I have no such trepidation at 30-1. I will be betting Water Cannon across the board, as well as using him up and down in the exotics with my other top contenders: Lion Heart, Imperialism, Rock Hard Ten, and Eddington.
Looking for value in the Preakness
As a handicapper, it's usually a good idea to go against public opinion, especially when you get inflated prices. That's why whenever I hear people - so-called experts and novices alike - saying the Preakness is shaping up as a two-horse race with Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, I start seeing dollar signs.
We have seen all year that no horses are head and withers above their generation, a la Affirmed and Alydar or Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. Yet I keep hearing people say that Smarty Jones and Lion Heart are the cream of this crop just because they dominated one race, forgetting that races in the slop often lead to lop-sided results for front-runners and offer valid excuses for closers who don't fire.
But let others feel that way, as they will be taking the worst of it odds-wise. I'm going to toss Smarty Jones completely. If he wins, I'll be cheering his performance like everyone else, but I refuse to take an underlay at 8-5 or thereabouts, and he will be used extensively in the exotic wagers, too.
The biggest overlay in the field is Water Cannon, number 11 in your program and on the saddle cloth, at a juicy 30-1 on the morning line.
Most people are saying he has no shot, especially since he usually likes the lead and is stuck with the outside post. He is also knocked because he hasn't faced the quality of competition as his peers.
I acknowledge all those points, but my feeling is that he has been running in slower races to begin with (24- or 25-second opening quarters and half-miles between 47.40 and 51 seconds), so I don't see him challenging Lion Heart or Sir Shackleton for the lead, anyway. He just has to cut over and get in that second flight with the likes of Smarty Jones, Eddington, and Rock Hard Ten.
His last win, over this track at 1 1/8 miles in the Federico Tesio on April 17, was in 1:50.50, which is just about a second slower than the major Derby preps. The fact he is the only entrant with a win - or a race of any kind - over the track certainly works in his favor.
The other thing I like is that he has won five straight races. He's a horse who knows how to win. Remind you of anyone?
At a pre-Derby seminar at the Stardust, I was asked by host John Kelly what I thought of Smarty Jones's chances. My response was something like this: "He's the type of horse I normally love. He's been dominating on a lesser-regarded circuit and now moving up to face the big boys. A lot of people discount those invaders, feeling they're of inferior quality, and you can usually get overlays. I just can't take 7-2 or 4-1 on him in an 18-horse field."
Well, Water Cannon fits the same mold, and I have no such trepidation at 30-1. I will be betting Water Cannon across the board, as well as using him up and down in the exotics with my other top contenders: Lion Heart, Imperialism, Rock Hard Ten, and Eddington.
